Most of the time, people are attracted to get-rich-fast scheme in the market, mostly saturated by mutli-level marketing in financial and investment sector, especially those that promise to produced 10-fold from the initial investment in a brink of time. But seldom people realized that they could produce the same result by investing on their own or perhaps assign a trustworthy financial consultant to do the job, provided that they have a great mind in acquire financial knowledge.
Have you ever wonder why and how our mind actually work? Why do we ever prefer this and not that? The mechanism that work in this topic is known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances. In a layman term, it is the infamous Gambler's fallacy.
is the mistaken belief that if something happens more frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen less frequently in the future; likewise, if something happens less frequently than normal during some period, then it will happen more frequently in the future (presumably as a means of balancing nature). - Lehrer, Jonah (2009). How We Decide. New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. p. 66.
Situations that is being observed is random (e.g. independent trials of a random process), such belief, though appealing to the human mind, is false. This fallacy can arise in many practical situations although it is most strongly associated with gambling where such mistakes are common among players. - Malcolm Gladwell (2005). Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking.
Instead of gambler's fallacy, have you ever wonder how could perception of LUCK could change your life? How about thinking of getting lucky by offering something in return? Look at this new shop under Threekind Marketing program, the creator of this store believe LUCK could be purchased.. what do you think?
Description of Gambler's Fallacy
The Gambler's Fallacy occured when a person assumes that a departure from what occurs on average, or in the long term will be corrected in the short term.
The form of the fallacy is as follows:
1.) X has happened. X departs from what is expected to occur on average or over the long term.
2.) Therefore, X will come to an end soon.
There are two common ways this fallacy is committed.
In both cases a person is assuming that some result must be "due" simply because what has previously happened departs from what would be expected on average or over the long term.
Original text and example from Nizkor Project Org
Examples of Gambler's Fallacy
Bill is playing against Doug in a WWII tank battle game. Doug has had a great "streak of luck" and has been killing Bill's tanks left and right with good die rolls. Bill, who has a few tanks left, decides to risk all in a desperate attack on Doug. He is a bit worried that Doug might wipe him out, but he thinks that since Doug's luck at rolling has been great Doug must be due for some bad dice rolls. Bill launches his attack and Doug butchers his forces.
Jane and Bill are talking:
Jane: "I'll be able to buy that car I always wanted soon."
Bill: "Why, did you get a raise?"
Jane: "No. But you know how I've been playing the lottery all these years?"
Bill: "Yes, you buy a ticket for every drawing, without fail." Jane: "And I've lost every time."
Bill: "So why do you think you will win this time?"
Jane: "Well, after all those losses I'm due for a win."
Joe and Sam are at the race track betting on horses.
Joe: "You see that horse over there? He lost his last four races. I'm going to bet on him."
Sam: "Why? I think he will probably lose."
Joe: "No way, Sam. I looked up the horse's stats and he has won half his races in the past two years. Since he has lost three of his last four races, he'll have to win this race. So I'm betting the farm on him."
Sam: "Are you sure?"
Joe: "Of course I'm sure. That pony is due, man...he's due!"
Source: Web.Threekind | Lehrer | Nizkor | Malcom